Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
No expert here on commercial pace ratings, but thought someone could explain Bris pace ratings to me. Before you give me a link I've read how they supposedly develop the numbers.
Case in Point, Delaware Race 1(today) 7/19-5f Dirt.
 Magnificentmindset ran 22.3-47.3-1:01.0-1:08.2(1/5's) LR at 5.5f -E2=80
 Theresa's Honor ran 22.4-47.4-1:00.3-1:07.1 LR at 5.5f - E2 = 82
The above was in the same race. set the first fraction and was 1 hd behind at 2nd call, so her times using 1L = 1/5 sec are basically the same as the leader.
was one beaten length behind at both 1st and 2nd calls. So using 1L = 1/5 sec. the still arrived at the 2nd call slower than Her TT would be an identical 25.0 as the although she arrived there in a slower time.
I was questioning how they gave an 82 pace rating vs. 's 80 rating? While this is only a 2 pt. difference, I've seen some that are real head scratchers. In another program of my own, I do equate 1 hd to .2 length, but rarely use it. |
The second call can be a little tricky at these short distance because the time is given for four furlongs but the call is given at a different point. Here is a good reference point:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...calltimeschart
Could be that BRIS does what I also do. I match the calls to the fractions given. In this case, here is how the second call looks, but keep in mind it comes at the 3 furlong mark:
0.1
1.0
The next call is the stretch call, which always comes one furlong before the finish. So in this case it is 4.5 furlongs, which more closely matches the given fraction which is being used to make the pace figures:
5.0
2.5
What I do is figure out the time at both points and estimate each horse's time at four furlongs. It isn't perfect, but it is all you can really do unless you want to watch every replay and chart them yourself. You could also blend the beaten lengths to give a decent estimate.
The
was 0.1 back at 3f and 5 lengths back at 4.5f, so you can estimate the horse was ~3.35 lengths back at 4f.
The
was 5.0 back at 3f and 2.5 lengths back at 4.5f, so you can estimate the horse was ~3.33 lengths back at 4f.
Obviously the
passed the
at some point between the 3f call and the 4.5 call and based on the beaten lengths the 4f point looks like a pretty good estimate of when it happened.
Main point is you do the best you can with poorly constructed data. Why in 2018 we're still using calls and fractions that don't match is beyond me.
