Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Last one, for contrast...all non-favorites, 2022:
Code:
Non-Favorites, 2022
222710 328896.62 322675.82 320284.12
ROI 0.74 0.72 0.72
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Quote:
This is 2022, so about the same as 2023 so far:
Code:
Favorites, 2022
35179 60641.26 62778.7 61434.54
ROI 0.86 0.89 0.87
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People should look at that comparison very carefully. I brought this up years ago, but the data screams it here.
Let's assume you have even marginal skill at identifying reasonably bet favorites vs. very overbet or bad favorites.
That means the "legitimate favorite" category ROI would be even better than the "all favorite" category above and the "all non favorite" category ROI would be a monumental disaster against those "legitimate favorites".
That means any time you handicap a race, come up with favorite as the most likely winner, and think he's a solid horse, you better have a damn good reason to play against him because you are playing a game where the expected long term ROI is going to be quite bad.
