Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I listened to a few podcasts and heard several very smart people say they also don't trust the commercial speed figures for the Shared Belief even though it fits with the day.
When I mentioned this here, I thought I was bringing something worthwhile to the discussion. Maybe since all the "sharpies" are skeptical of the figure for that race also, I should be thinking in the opposite direction for value. 
That figure "could" be inflated even though it fit with the rest of the day, but Honor A.P.'s overall record is better than the lesser looking horses that finished close to him that day. So maybe they all aren't as good as they look on numbers, but the slowish pace and his trip means he ran just fine and can make the favorite stretch his legs if Sheriffs has him cranked for a new top.
Unfortunately, it was also mentioned that Cezanne is running out of Shared Belief in the 9th race tomorrow in the Pat Day. So that may offer some kind of clue about the quality of that race. |
@ Class
The trick to the Shared Belief was the final 3/16th......it was solid,(remember Del Mar has played very slow this meet)they came home the right way.
I rated the race strong.......I think the quality was there.
You mentioned Cezanne,he's going to be tough to evaluate tomorrow......the rail was miserable today,and if you had speed on the inside you were screwed.
Going a one turn mile near the front tomorrow from the heavy inside is almost a line through the race before it starts for Cezanne.
In another thread I thought I saw you mention you weren't as high on Tiz the Law as most......I don't like him tomorrow.
I know he's going to be a huge favorite,and alot of people are crowning him the one.........but I just don't like the horses he's been beating.
Can he win.......of course......heck he'll be sixty cents on the dollar in the Derby......but I think he gets beat.
Good luck with all your wagers tomorrow.
