Quote:
|
I've been high on Honor AP all spring and summer as a horse that could develop a lot because Shirreffs tends to develop his horses slowly. I didn't hate his last race, but even with the wide trip against flow that was hardly a Derby field. I'm going to use him, especially if he's downgraded by the public because he lost his last race, but I'm not quite as enthusiastic as I was and I'm not sure I trust that 102 Beyer off his last.
|
I listened to a few podcasts and heard several very smart people say they also don't trust the commercial speed figures for the Shared Belief even though it fits with the day.
When I mentioned this here, I thought I was bringing something worthwhile to the discussion. Maybe since all the "sharpies" are skeptical of the figure for that race also, I should be thinking in the opposite direction for value.
That figure "could" be inflated even though it fit with the rest of the day, but Honor A.P.'s overall record is better than the lesser looking horses that finished close to him that day. So maybe they all aren't as good as they look on numbers, but the slowish pace and his trip means he ran just fine and can make the favorite stretch his legs if Sheriffs has him cranked for a new top.
Unfortunately, it was also mentioned that Cezanne is running out of Shared Belief in the 9th race tomorrow in the Pat Day. So that may offer some kind of clue about the quality of that race.
