Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
No it doesn't I have 2 programs that would make your 85% rule I know if rule out some of those almost impossible races like the derby and the large fields in the breeders cup the average will go up
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Then, relative to my perspective, it looks doomed to failure.
The game is not in such a market where every race can be played. Most of the races offered are negative-expectation races. It's a parimutuel market with a 'fixed' takeout rate. So the cause of most of these negative-expectation races tends to be a combination of insufficient field-size and/or strong favorites(specific cases of efficient market).
Although relative to my own perspective, I see a problem in your general approach, it is not to say that there are no possibilities of exceptions. If your rebate is high enough there are some possiblities. I haven't worked on this problem to have complete mastery, but obvious instant-recall brainstorm ideas for application of large rebates over all races include; Occassionally simply/obviously betting the strong favorites (that un-rebated would be negative-expections), occasionally dutching multiple win horses, and occasionally betting the pick-6 or pick-5, super-high-5 and superfecta wagers. If the rebate is strong enough, these tactics can hypothetically leverage the esoteric understanding deeply enough to come out to a positive expectation even when the market being offered is normally a sucker-bet.
Although hypothetical, it also unlikely to be the preferred approach.
