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If a horse is NTL (needs to lead), the strategy is often to see if it can win with the lead. If it doesn't win, it often strengthens the horse for a future out and also somewhat darkens the form. Look for a horse with a faster than normal (for that horse) early pace. The distance has more to do with bloodlines, in my opinion.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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