Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I agree.
The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.
To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.
If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.
If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.
The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.
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So often with angles a positive ROI is nothing more than noise in a dataset. Until they do their own research though most people will not understand that. In their mind things stop being profitable because someone found it and jumped on it. Large out of sample testing is critical IMO but since large datasets are generally not easy to come by I suspect very few people are wiling to split up a sample in the first place.
