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Dave, are you saying that assuming the 80% hit rate is valid, betting all three horses each time is superior long-term to any odds-dependent exclusion?
Are you suggesting flat-betting the three regardless of odds?
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I am.
Dick's suggestion about dutching is a good one as well, but ... the nature of dutching is that you will now be wagering more money on the lower-priced horses and less on the higher ones.
Logically, the 1st and 2nd choices will almost always be part of your contenders. What will likely make your system profitable are the slightly higher-priced horses that make it into your top 3.
As an example, suppose we considered only horses that went off at 8/1. One would assume that they would, as a group, lose around 20%. But you would have two classes of 8/1 horses: those that are conetnders and those that aren't. One would (logically) assume that the contender group would significantly outperform the non-contenders.
All this being said, I will offer you another alternative: Monty Hall.
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
I have a methodology that will concentrate two-thirds of the winners into one-third of the horses. In other words, it is a "final decision" approach that works. If you really are capable of getting 80% winners in three contenders, then a realistic expectation when Monty is applied is about 50% winners with one horse.
On the 23rd of August we will hold a pay-for workshop on this precise topic.
http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000053.html
While this seminar is aimed at HSH users, it is not mandatory that you have HSH to apply the principles. Read what one user had to say after attending this workshop back in March:
http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/001822.html
Here is the thread of the original in-person workshop we did in January. If you scroll towards the bottom you will see the results achieved by the actual attendees. Note that at that workshop I played live - every race - 30 races, 1 horse per race, and cashed 17 tickets. The other players had similar results.
Read about it here:
http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/001722.html
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
