2/03/18 Bob Lewis Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita
DRF Chart -
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180203&RN=5
Timeform Figures 1/4-133 1/2-
133 3/4-122 1m-113 Final Fig-109
Analysis Lombo: There was a lot of talk about this being a glorified NW1X, which it was, but so are many races like this at this time of year. It definitely featured the B 3yo stock of socal but I think we saw an A performance. The winner has been knocked a bit in comparison to the other winners this weekend but his pace and speed figures were absolutely legit. For transparency I did hit this horse pretty good but I think he does have ability, maybe not Derby ability but he can run. I believe he went head to head with the most talented 3yo sprinter in the Country in Ax Man (yes I know about Strike Power) and his loss tipped his hand at real ability. He was expected to control the pace in my view and did just that, but did it in real horse race fashion. This race gives great context though between Avery Islands race, which went in 141 pace figure, under duress, compared to 133 free and clear running. So while I would upgrade Avery Islands effort, while not knocking this effort, it should be considered that it was a undisputed lead. I am also not sure about distance but this was a real win, buy a very talented horse... he stands, somewhere around middling contender in my book.
Ayacara: Maybe the most interesting horse to evaluate coming out of the race. He was grinding away from the 3/8ths pole on the inside and finished well. Now here is where the judgement comes in, did he close well or was it due to the face this race went from 122 at the mile to 109 finish? Maybe a little of both. I think his odds dictate what to do next time, if he is undervalued I would view it more positive, but if he is 7/2 against say Lombo and McKinzie I would not be excited to bet him. People will view his trip, trying to catch a loose on the lead winner, more than they should in context of the race shape. He was simply just better then the rest of this NW1X field. I do think he wants to route long on dirt, from a patient barn, so at this point I would keep him in the Derby mix.
Dark Vader Was chasing the loose on the lead horse saving ground, in legit fractions himself and held well for third. Dont know if there is any more upside but this was a legit effort in terms of the horses talent.
Peace/Shivermetimbers/Regulate three well regarded horses from great barns did no running. Not sure I see any reason to be positive about them.
Race Replay
