Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
I think I asked a legitimate question.
Core Beliefs earned a higher number in the SA Derby than Magnum Moon did winning the Arkansas Derby .... Is there people out there that believe if the SA Derby was run exactly the way it was to earn all those lofty speed numbers and Magnum Mood was also in the race and he ran exactly the same quality of race that he ran in Arkansas that he would have finished behind Core Beliefs ?
My concern is not for the experienced horse players on this site, if you want to throw your money away jumping on the Justify hype train than you know exactly what your getting into , rather my concern is for the casual once a year players who don’t know any better and just take the numbers as gospel not understanding what they are actually looking at is a grossly inflated speed figure that is nothing more than propaganda to push Justify . His first two races were against 5 horse fields of nobody’s so they had to really come up with a huge number for the SA Derby whether he earned it or not to justify ( no pun intended ) to make him the derby favorite. Even Frezien Fire could have lopped around the track uncontested in those fractions. Bolt did nothing to challenge Justify in that race. He just let him canter around the track.
If you want to build the sport of horse racing long term than you are going to need to convert some of these casual players to regular players and getting them to throw away their money on horses that don’t realistically have a chance by publishing Highly Questionable ( nicest way to put it I could think of ) speed figures is just plain wrong and not good for the long term viability of the sport.
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When you start out using "crawling around Santa Anita" that is trolling obviously. If you don't like speed figures, don't use them. Many have pointed out that the SA surface has been historically slow this year. Plenty of horses have shipped out and ran great to show it isn't some anomaly where the current barns there are full of slugs that skewed the ratings.
The windows are a great place to express your opinion. Pace Advantage is probably the next best place. But you don't have to express the same opinion 42 times. We get it.
I'm of the belief that if Magnum Moon tried to keep up with Justify early he'd have been looking for a place to lay down in the stretch. The Arkansas Derby was a joke pace wise. And even with that he was running on about a 20 degree angle through the stretch. Good luck with him.
