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To me Firenze Fire looked like the kid who is big entering high school sports and never gets much bigger.
He also started to flatten-out on a consistent basis.
I wrote him off even as a contender. Yes... I know some people love the '1-turn' angle. I try to really be selective with that angle, because players are quick to use it to rationalize opinions.
There are possibilities that it was legit.
Maybe FF had injuries/issues that were hampering him for several races? Yesterday he was finally healthy?
And maybe the huge late odds drop was due to a lucky bet? Maybe their computer program falsely had FF as the top horse, and they were wrong, but happened to luck-into this horse that was finally healthy after being hampered for several races?
It's possible, but that sounds like bullshit. You have a barn where (before FF's Dwyer) horses are suddenly improving dramatically, and then the horse has bad enough form to be 5/1 or 6/1 or whatever... Maybe a fringe contender in the Dwyer if you go for the 1-turn angle thing... and suddenly he drops to 5/2 at the break and runs like he's the Top 3YO.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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