Whether Woods is back, on his way back, capable of winning...however you want to put it, it will depend on improving his putting. When he was winning consistently, everything inside 10 feet was going in the hole; now, most of them don't. Until that changes, I still see a gap between "in contention on Sunday" and "winning."
Personally, I think he would be a good candidate for shortening to a small-ball strategy instead of trying to keep up with the big-hitting young lads. It's a lot easier to shape a shot from the fairway than it is from the weeds. So I'm told.