Quote:
|
Originally Posted by AndyC
Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?
|
I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.
The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.
The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.
Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.
