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Old 09-07-2022, 09:26 AM   #4
Aerocraft67
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 688
My vertical play resembles the OP scenario.

Given a neutral opinion on the favorite and a few viable contenders, I'll try to beat the favorite in the exacta. I'll take a deeper swing if I'm against the favorite or contention is deep.

I will hedge with a legitimate favorite. I require it to be on top of a deeper vertical, like the trifecta or superfecta, not with other favorites, with at least one good price keyed underneath. If it's not an overwhelming favorite or I like it, I may allow it in the place position of the super, preferably accompanied by several upset winners and even bigger prices underneath.

The favorite dampens the payoff of an exotic. Why anchor the bottom of your play with the favorite, when you can beat it shallower, at a better value, with less risk? If I can win an exacta without the favorite, why would I try to hit the trifecta with the favorite dampening payoff on the bottom?

An underlay favorite to win is probably an underlay in the other pools, so I don't try to turn an underlay into an overlay with a clever vertical. But I will tilt into a short price to catch a clever pick underneath. Even if it's an underlay, it can buoy hit rate and give me the satisfaction of cashing my pick.

If I'm on the favorite, I try to play it lean, and not hedge against it.

I don't have enough of my own data to back up success or failure with this approach, but there's a lot of data-driven wisdom behind it.

One thing to keep in mind is that even with overlaid exotics, you can have long dry spells that look pretty ugly. You can properly bet a lot of 10/1 propositions going off at 12/1 and still lose a lot of money.

That's why I don't mind hedging a little with more likely contenders when I'm otherwise focused on more clever shots. I give myself a decent chance to win or minimize loss, with substantial upside.

I also tend to play every race I handicap, so I need to adapt accordingly. If you're playing races more selectively (as most agree you should), then you'd be less apt to hedge with neutral favorites, because you'd only be playing more lucrative races where you can beat the favorite.
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