Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It is tricky. Most times, I'd see a slow pace, big final time win and figure overrated and probably overbet. But when it is a Baffert horse, it can be like beating your head against the wall. Just depends on what he is up against next out, but you never really know how they will react under tougher conditions until they face them.
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I agree with CJ.
When a lightly raced horse (especially in their debut) puts up a big figure in a slow paced race, one of two things usually happens when they are tested. The horse reveals there was more in the tank and he could run ever faster when pressed to or he reveals that he's a cheaper type speed horse that needs his own way to put up a number. If the horse is trained by Joe Blow with a mediocre pedigree and and wasn't sold for a lot of money, you are usually safe if you assume guilty until proven innocent at a short price. With a top pedigree from top breeders and trained by Baffert, you are usually safer to assume there's more where that came from. So far, this one doesn't look as promising, but maybe he was having issues and that's why he was given time off.
