Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If the trainers are cranking them up faster and sooner, you'd think they'd also peak sooner.
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That would actually explain why the MSW and NW1 ALW horses nowadays are faster. However, a relative lack of conditioned allowance races for young horses is a big part of the problem. A conscientious trainer couldn't put a young horse through his paces progressively even if he wanted to.
Another explanation for would be that most allowance races now are both optional claimers and open to older horses early in the year. Thus a young horse not only has to face its elders when it's at a physiologic disadvantage but also in some cases has to take on some salty claiming types that own multiple wins.
They might peak sooner being rushed and overtrained, but that doesn't mean they reach their true potential, which again is at least partially dependent on physical maturation. Cranking them up early only exposes them to more injury and wear-and-tear than is necessary which in turn leads to early retirement, wastage, and descent into the claiming ranks. Couple this with the concentration of talent into the barns of only a handful of trainers and you have a pretty good recipe for not being able to fill races.
