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I don't play races the way I used to.
Now I more or less start by scanning the field to see if there are any horses in the race I think are better or worse than the public is likely to think they are. If there is one, then I start looking at the other horses in the race trying to figure out if there's a way to construct profitable combinations with that horse given his chances of winning.
Let's say I have some hidden trip on a horse and think he's likely to go off longer than he should. If I look at the rest of the horses and decide he's only the 3rd most likely winner, I can still construct wagers I feel good about as long as I am correct about the price and he's 15-1 (as an example). I may play exactas, triples, and even supers keying him in various slots. They just won't be as heavily weighted to him winning as they would be if I thought he was best horse in the race.
I'm more or less trying to match my "value" assessment of the race to my "probability" assessment of the race and create all long term EV+ combinations.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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