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Originally Posted by Bruddah
I agree with everything he has written, but there is this knawing viualization of Curlin winning the Ky. Dby., which is haunting me.
Last years Derby winner (Barbaro) was the first winner, with Raise A Native (RAN) breeding on the Dam's sire line. This Jinx was broken with a sampling of more than 60+ starters dating back to 1987. When others speak of a Derby Jinx, I have to ask how many starters have tried it, not how many years. I believe the Jinx about Ky Dby starters, with no 2 year old foundation, is more myth than fact. Primarily because, no one can offer up the number of starters having tried, especially in modern days. My thought is the sampling would be very small, while the total number of years moght be high.
Curlin is definitely capable of winning the roses and being the best of his generation. If he doesn't win, it won't be because of a mythical Derby jinx. Especially one with no facts regarding the number of starters having tried. It will be because (A) he wasn't good enough, (B) bad post position (C) poor racing luck. Good Luck to all Saturday  |
Bruddah: I agree that Curlin certainly could win and I've never been one to draw many conclusions from the unraced angle, dosage, etc. However, having said that (and one poster on here pointed out that many solid Ky Derby horses have come from The Ark Derby and I totally agree with that, having backed Smarty Jones in a BIG way a few years ago) I just really think The Ark Derby this year was one of the weakest fields they have had in many years . If you look at the
entire Oaklawn meet, it was possibly the worst of their storied history: short fields, offtrack handle down 30% etc. So using your multiple choice method above let me choose
(A)....I also would like to wish everyone a great Derby and success at the "windows"!
Boomer
