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Ken,
How does Funny Cide not meet Beyer's historical criteria?
He must have raced within the last 28 days.
* He must have raced as a 2-year-old. Otherwise, he is trying to cram too much preparation into too short a time. The last horse who won the Derby without 2-year-old experience was Apollo in 1882.
* He ought to have made at least three starts as a 3-year-old. The only Derby winner in the last half century who broke this rule was Sunny Halo in 1983. Among those who tried and failed in recent years were Point Given (2001), Lemon Drop Kid (1999) and Victory Gallop (1998); all of them subsequently won a race in the Triple Crown series, suggesting that they may have lost the Derby because they didn't have enough preparation.
* He ought to have made at least five career starts. Even though horses are coming into the Derby with shorter and shorter campaigns, and both Fusaichi Pegasus and Grindstone won after five races, no horses with four or fewer starts has won since Exterminator in 1918.
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