Quote:
Originally Posted by dryrunguy
I'm curious the degree to which you all are comfortable singling horses in multi-race wagers. It seems like this is an expected tactic, especially in Pick 5 and Pick 6 wagers. (For Pick 5s and Pick 6s, it's almost impossible to create an affordable ticket without singling a horse.)
I'm not sure it necessarily has to be a given.
I have been burned SO MANY TIMES by singling a horse in multi-race wagers... The horse doesn't show up, the horse dumps its rider at the break, the horse gets mugged on the far turn by a riderless horse that dumped its rider at the break, the horse has traffic trouble... That list goes on and on.
I'm just curious how you all approach singling. Thanks in advance for your insightful and helpful responses.
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With regard to P-5s and P-6s, I would only single a horse I thought had a 40% or greater chance of winning. IMO singling a horse that has value because it should be 5-1 and but you will probably get 10-1 or better is a fool's game. Those horses are much better leveraged in short horizontals or vertical bets.
For races I don't single in P5s and P6s I try to get at least 50% coverage in my probability of having a winner.
The overriding theme in betting a P5 or P6 is to get 5 or 6 winners! Duh. As such I don't throw out an even money horse because I believe it should be 2-1. To do so would throw out a horse giving 33% coverage of a win. A long horizontal is not necessarily an underlay because it includes a horse that will be an underlay but including more than 1 might be a good reason to skip the bet.
