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Old 07-22-2010, 05:51 PM   #1
LottaKash
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Mark Cramer: Art vs. Science....(line making)

Currently, there is a thread about your most "influential" books & authors, and I was going to say that, for me, Mark Cramer would be my "#1-pick" as having the most positive and influential effect on my handicapping....Yet, there are/were so many excellent and successful author/players who delve into the "Bread & Butter" and "Meat and Potatos" side of horse racing, and who could deny any or all of them, as they expertly show us how to detect, determine, and assess, speed, pace, velocity, ESP, running lines, along with class ratings and all the other numerous and usual "classical" handicapping categories and such ?....

But, MC's book "THE ODDS ON YOUR SIDE" was the deal clincher for me....It had filled the most important void in my personal handicapping process..."THE BETTING LINE PHILOSOPHY"...
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Still, this is not the point of my starting this thread....

It is about Line-Making, and, is it considered, by you, to be more of an "ART" or more of a "SCIENCE" ?.....
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Before I quote what MC had to say about Man vs. Machine in the Betting-Line-Making process", I would like to quote what expert handicapper and writer "Dick Mitchell", in his foreward, had to say about MC's book.....

" To my knowledge (1987) this is the first book in the literature of thoroughbred handicapping to be dedicated entirely to the subject of making an "Odds Line""...."This skill is the ultimate weapon in the assault on the mutuels"...."This is fastest road to the win window"....

"This book is for all handicappers of all persuasions....The Computer-Jock will be amazed at how well Cramer turns Qualitative concepts into Numbers"...."The more traditional handicapper will be dragged kicking and screaming into a decision orientation style of wagering as opposed to the more common selection orientation"...."Nobody promised you that the road to the win window is an easy one"......

"This book is a treasure map"....."It contains the key to the mint"....It is up to you to find it".....
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Mark Cramer, in his Intro to this book states; "We, as horseplayers, can follow examples of the Beyers, Davidowitz' and Quinns, but ultimately, we have to discover our own way".....
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In MC's 1st-Chapter "THE BETTING LINE PHILOSPHY", in the beginning, goes like this: "This book is based on an inherent contradiction"....

(1) "Let us first agree in principle that a betting line will help us to identify overlays....A betting based on 100% total probablities in a race sounds like something very Numerical.....Therefore, most horseplayers assume that if the end product is numerical, the process must be numerical...How can you end up with numbers, if you don't start with numbers ?.....As a result of this assumption, the computer would seem to be the vehicle which best relates to the process....On the other hand, given the infinite subtleties of horse race analysis, it should be unlikely that a computer could produce a betting line unless it were taught to deal with each race as separate puzzle...Can a computer be programmed to do this ?...Unlikely, but possible"...

(2) "Many longshots and overlays at all price levels have been uncovered by "intuitive reasoning" ".....The act of scientific discovery is just as much and Art as it is a Science....Engineers don't discover the theory of relativity, artists do, If a betting line is to be constructed to uncover "value" best, it must incorporate artistic thought...In other words, there must be a way to translate logic and creativity into a Number".....

"How to translate words and logic into numbers....How to construct a bridge from intuitive reasoning to numerical line...The will be the first and formost achievement of this book".....
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Without going into too much detail, it must be said that, MC's approach to line making is a bit contrarian to the classic way of making a line, in that, he depicts that "each race" falls into a "Race Category" ie; claimer, stakes, alwc, starter, graded etc, ......But, each of those Race Categories, as MC contends, can be labeled, and must be put into 1 of 10 different "Handicapping Categories" as well....These HC's are listed;

1. Low Priced Overlay
2. The Contentious Race
3. Stakes in Action
4. Lesser of Evils
5. Legitimate Favorite
6. One Factor Race
7. Vulnerable Favorite
8. Apples and Oranges
9. Co-Choice Race
10. Basic Race
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So, my question to all is; how can you, or DO you, identify any one of the listed 10 types of unique "handicapping categories", that any one particular race may be labeled as, "via the computer" ?.....

Does anyone construct a betting line this way ?.....

Is it difficult to tell a computer program to identify what variable(s) are to be given the most "weight" to, in each race, in a case by race basis, as Mark Cramer does ?...

I know that Thoroughbred Programs are far more complex and accurate since 1987, especially at concocting an odds line, but I still see some very sophisticated people with hightly advanced software, on this forum, still trying to put a number on some variable, angle or concept or other....That is why I ask this question again, "Is your computer smart enough to know what kind of unique situation that may exists in each race by race, or does it just know about the basics such as class, speed and position etc, and base the odds on that, and not any of the subtleties etc..? How do you quantify the subtleties with a number ?..... For instance, my best overlays and scores are based on "Angles" and "Trainers intentions on race day", and I haven't found a way to express that in a whole number as of yet....I guess that is why I still remain a "pen & paper" handicapper....I mean, It's nice to have the basics all done for you at the touch of button, but what about the "G" factor (gut instinct) and the "Angles"....???....If you still have to rely on your own interpretation and perceptions anyway (other than the pace, speed, and velocity stuff), can you put a whole lot of stock in the "black box" concept and trust it at face value...???

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Note:
Mark also identifies the most powerful to the lesser of Major (handicapping factors) as well as the positives and negatives that may be evident in a horse's data set.....Worth the price of the book alone, imo..
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Mark likes and quoted many scientists at the conclusion of this book, and one of my favorites is; "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement...But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth" - Niels Bohr

best,
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