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Justify for sure is one of the biggest if not the biggest hype job the KY derby has ever seen. Without the Baffert led PR machine and these pumped up phony speed figures than Justify would not even be in the top 10 of the betting action if people just went off the merits of the horse .
The evidence ...
You can try all you want to legitimize his SA derby speed figure but once you take the lip stick off the pig the stone cold facts are he ran one of the slowest SA derby’s against what probably was the weakest and smallest SA derby in history and he gets rewarded with the highest speed figures of any horse this year when you got horses like Mendelssohn, Audible and Magnum Moon crushing much more difficult fields in their final preps and in the case of Mendelssohn obliterating the track record.
In Justify workouts it’s never about the final time it’s always ignore the one tangible thing like time and instead just let your imagination take over and fantasize in your head a out how much his stride and coat color remind you of secretariat.
He has had zero races that have done anything to prepare him for the bumper car environment of the derby. He’s raced in mostly hand picked fields of also rans and always had these scripted trips. He has raced in fields of 5 horses twice and a seven horse field once. I would say his first two races ecspecially were paid workouts but honestly the 4 horses he raced against in both races were not even the quality of workout horses that the other top contenders use. His first two races can accurately be called media exhibitions not races.
The gut reaction from the three highly acclaimed analysts that worked the SA derby was wondering if Baffert would even run Justify in the derby at all after his lackluster “victory” yet what everyone saw as lackluster the guys who make the numbers decide to reward Justify with the highest beyer of the year lol ???
And the way Bolt just obviously laid down for Justify. Just handing him the win. Not even attempting to make a race of it until it was way too late. Castellano said on the record he got the orders to let Justify have a easy uncontested lead straight from the trainer of Bolt Mick Ruis. Yeah that Mick Ruis .... Mr. Integrety right there. Bolt played the role perfectly of being entered in the SA derby to keep it from being a complete joke yet not doing anything that would keep Justify from getting the points he needed to make the derby.
I am guessing there are some deep pockets out there with a big smile on their face about Justify being the heavy favorite ecspecially with exchange wagering where you don’t even need to pick the winner. If you got enough cash you can just bet against Justify to win and since he is such a big favorite you can still make a killing just doing that with basically no risk because the reality is Justify is in way over his head against several more accomplished horses.
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