Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
Thanks for the reply.
I must be doing something different than you. I followed the link provided by the other poster and followed the instructions. Here are the Brier Scores I came up with:
.099
.116
.078
.065
I used 1 for the winner and 0 for the losers.
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If those are the scores for 4 races, that is possible. The score I posted is the mean of scores over 6024 races. Within that sample of 6k races, there are some (105) with scores within the range you've posted. However, if your scores are consistently as you've posted, whatever model you're using is significantly better than mine
.
EDIT: over those 6k races, the public's final odds line using the win odds converted to probabilities had a brier score of .7698
