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Originally Posted by maddog42
Well that is the crux of the matter isn't it? The implication here is if you toss a false favorite or 2nd lowest odds horse that it frees up enough money to create value in the other legitimate contenders. While I certainly agree with this, there are other scenarios that happen MORE often. One of my theories is that the 4th and 5th contenders offer more value than any horse in a race. That is why I would quibble with the "natural odds" part of your system. A horse having only an 8% chance of winning can be a helluva overlay if it is 20-1. I find this happens in contentious 8,9,10 horse fields quite often.
Lest Dave think I am picking on him (really only nitpicking) let me give his method,( I haven't purchased it) as described some praise. I have defended
his and Al's statements and actually think this may be close to an absolute truth.
I had a great conversation with Dave about toteboard odds and whale betting a few months back and it was enlightening.
Thanks Dave.
If you can select legitimate contenders in a horse race you are more than half way to winning.
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If you pick contenders well then you'll find yourself using the fourth or fifth favorite several times. They are almost one in the same. There is nothing to quibble about.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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