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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
SMTW,
The issue that was left out was that you need to be able to do is to toss out one of the low-priced horses.
The presupposition here is also that you have a track record which supports the fact that when YOU toss a low-odds horse he significantly under-performs (i.e. returns very little monies to his backers).
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Well that is the crux of the matter isn't it? The implication here is if you toss a false favorite or 2nd lowest odds horse that it frees up enough money to create value in the other legitimate contenders. While I certainly agree with this, there are other scenarios that happen MORE often. One of my theories is that the 4th and 5th contenders offer more value than any horse in a race. That is why I would quibble with the "natural odds" part of your system. A horse having only an 8% chance of winning can be a helluva overlay if it is 20-1. I find this happens in contentious 8,9,10 horse fields quite often.
Lest Dave think I am picking on him (really only nitpicking) let me give his method,( I haven't purchased it) as described some praise. I have defended
his and Al's statements and actually think this may be close to an absolute truth.
I had a great conversation with Dave about toteboard odds and whale betting a few months back and it was enlightening.
Thanks Dave.
If you can select legitimate contenders in a horse race you are more than half way to winning.
