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Gametheory:
I read your entire Post, er uh, Posts, and I read the redstate.com article. Both were informative and enlightening and I found very little to disagree with. I would also give caution to going against Silver since the Redstate article gave him a lot of credit for being a baseball statistical whiz. Both you and the article hinged your pro-romney argument on an enthused Republican turnout and a depleted Democratic turnout. This will surely be somewhat true, but how much? I am slightly critical of Silver also, in that unCommon sense tells me that anytime a candidate polls so close nationally and in razor thin state polls then he has a good chance of winning. Obama should be the favorite;he is certainly trending better, but I would only go 60-40. This 83% favorite rating that Silver gives Obama is stupid. Much of your model and the Redstate model compares the drastic differences between the 2004 and 2008 turnout rates. I am pretty sure the turnout rates for Republicans will be somewhere between these 2 extremes.
Thanks for the hard work and the informative posts. I always appreciate a
thread such as this that is based on sound and reasonable assertions.
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There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
Last edited by maddog42; 11-04-2012 at 09:10 PM.
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