Can you make any hay using the data?
Imo, yes.
But you have to know what you are doing.
I'll give you a simple example.
Hastings Park. It's a bullring.
Historically, at the 6.5f distance, when the surface is dry, horses that make the top going into the first turn tend to get the best of it. And off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn tend to get the worst of it.
On the other hand, when the surface is wet, the way race outcomes are shaped is flipped.
Horses that make the top going into the first turn, and horses pressing a contested pace, tend to become exhausted about time they reach the midpoint on the far turn. At the same time, off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn often get the best of it.
Over the past several meets, these effects are evident in the data.
Here's what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is fast for horses that are rank=1 for JCapper Early Consensus that also have an Early HDW runstyle - with the data further broken out by calendar year:
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKF19 = 1
AND RUNSTYLE < 15
AND TRACK = 'HST'
AND DIST = 1430
AND TKCOND = 'FT'
AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018#
AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 626.90 566.00 537.40
Bet -542.00 -542.00 -542.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 84.90 24.00 -4.60
Wins 74 123 158
Plays 271 271 271
PCT .2731 .4539 .5830
ROI 1.1566 1.0443 0.9915
Avg Mut 8.47 4.60 3.40
Code:
By: Calendar Year
Year P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018 -20.70 230.00 0.9100 32 115 .2783 1.0190 6.54
2019 49.70 214.00 1.2322 30 107 .2804 1.0268 8.79
2020 55.90 98.00 1.5704 12 49 .2449 0.8969 12.83
Ending BankRoll: $454.10
Starting BankRoll: $300.00
High BankRoll: $470.95
Low BankRoll: $210.25
Longest Losing Streak: 13.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0175
Max Bet: 999999999.00
And this is what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is other than fast for horses that are
JPR rank <= 3 that have an HDW runstyle other than Early - with the data further broken out by calendar year:
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKJPR <= 3
AND NOT RUNSTYLE < 15
AND TRACK = 'HST'
AND DIST = 1430
AND NOT TKCOND='FT'
AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018#
AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 404.80 311.30 313.10
Bet -344.00 -344.00 -344.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 60.80 -32.70 -30.90
Wins 44 73 103
Plays 172 172 172
PCT .2558 .4244 .5988
ROI 1.1767 0.9049 0.9102
Avg Mut 9.20 4.26 3.04
Code:
By: Calendar Year
Year P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018 33.40 148.00 1.2257 20 74 .2703 1.0565 9.07
2019 24.20 160.00 1.1513 20 80 .2500 0.9773 9.21
2020 3.20 36.00 1.0889 4 18 .2222 0.8687 9.80
Ending BankRoll: $401.75
Starting BankRoll: $300.00
High BankRoll: $474.70
Low BankRoll: $290.00
Longest Losing Streak: 11.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0175
Max Bet: 999999999.00
Imo, the best way to know what the prevailing patterns are is to make the effort - and look at the data.
-jp
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