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My conclusion on betting pick sixes
This latest mandatory payout at Gulfstream Park a couple of days ago really frustrated me because I latched onto 2 winning singles and instead of playing tickets that gave me a really good chance of hitting I went another direction with what if one wins and one loses let me give myself a chance to win at that. Now the logic of that is not outlandish. The chances of both winning were about 20% while the chances of just 1 winning was about 50% so on the surface that logic makes sense. The problem is that when you use that approach, to make your play reasonable from a cost perspective you spread yourself so thin, that anything worth hitting is probably going to eliminate you as what happened on Saturday.
Now changing your approach off of the results of a single pick 6 is a silly notion, and I realize that singling 2 horses typically at best will get you a 25% chance of hitting or as low as a 15% chance (if you can't find 2 singles that good you probably should not single 2 and probably wait for better opportunities). But this one was sort of an eye opener because for once I got home my singles, every horse that won had to used in a spread situation, yet I was so all over the place in my attack, that I failed to cover the basic notion, how should I attack this assuming my 2 singles win. I just came up with a $140 straight ticket and left it at that. Little thought, little energy on it. Instead I focus most of my energy into well one wins and one loses how do I protect myself. I realize that in using this passive approach I am always spreading myself too thin and the song remains the same.Typically 5 out of six, sometime 4 out of 6. But rarely 6 of 6, and when I do hit the 6 of 6 I get back maybe $1500, $3000. Big Deal. Every time a hittable $15,000 to $50,000 pick 6 comes in, it is would of, could of, should of. Not only that I can't tell you the number times I have screwed up, had this sick feeling in my stomach because I should have been 4 for 4 after 4 races and was certain I had enough coverage to get home and sure enough, still would have lost (the point being that when you cover yourself too thin it is so easy to blow a pick 6).
Truth be told this for me is an Aha moment. I realize that I have been doing this all wrong. The 20 cent pick six with a huge carryover on a mandatory payout is an incredible betting opportunity. But I realize, given my bankroll (I will bet up to $500 but certainly not going much higher than that), that I can try and play a pick 2 or a pick 6. For my bankroll I can formulate plays that can get through the 4 spreads in the low to high 80's percentage wise (depending on how difficult the 4 spread races are) and I just have to worry about hitting the 2 singles. So most of the time I will hit when the 2 singles hit and more importantly when the bombs start going off in the sequence I am still going to have some good life rather than being dead or virtually dead.
My conclusion, right or wrong is that I am much better off focusing on 2 singles and living or dying with them and amply spreading and covering the other races.
Let's say hypothetically I play 100 of these at say $400 a pop, the 2 singles hit on average 20% of the time and I hit the spreads only 80% of the time. that means $40,000 invested I will hit on average 16. My breakeven is about $2500 per hit. That seems very easily attainable with carryover pick sixes. Truth is I hit nowhere near 16% of my pick six plays. Why because I am so busy worrying about not losing, I play using strategies that makes me lose. The ultimate irony. I win the battle a lot of times, avoiding going down because maybe 1 of my 2 best singles goes down and I am still alive but ultimately I typically will still lose the war. More importantly when I do win the war it will typically not pay that much anyhow. Truth is that I have come to the conclusion that to hit a good pick six you have to do everything right. That is only because I have made it that way. If I play properly, I need to hit a pick 2 and by doing so I will hit the pick 6 the majority of the time I do.
By the way, this is for my bankroll. If I was play 2 or 3 k s a pop there is no way I would single 2 horses. I will worry about the strategy when I get there.
I have a bunch of scores to make first.
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