Quote:
Originally Posted by bigeastbeast
After nearly half a century at this game,I'm convinced that handicapping doesn't get it done often enough.Too many horses win today that are off 3-4 weeks or more.Of course,horses in general don't race as frequently as they did in the 70's and 80's.So there's that.
I now believe that the tote board gives you a better chance of finding "smart " money.
Tonight in the 4th at Turfway,a F&M race for non-winners of two in the past year,I noticed that the outside horse had been bet down well below its morning line and had been heavily bet in the double.
Sure enough,it started slow before circling about 5 horses on the turn and blowing past the rest in the stretch.
It's possible that this type of approach works best for sprints,claimers,and possibly females.
I'm hoping that my next 50 years will turn out better.
BTW-For harness racing,I'm beginning to believe that more winners can be found from the charts and followed from there.
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In todays game a horse that is fit can be off 30 days or more and come back to run a good race. In fact a 30 day layoff may give time for sore muscles to get better. With even the lighest of training I don't look at a 30-45 day break from racing as a negative.
There is as much dumb money as smart money on the tote at some tracks.
Some owner that thinks his little chance horse is going to win can have an impact on the odds at the smaller tracks. You have to know your tracks and their crowd and still it is hard to separate the smart money.
