Imo, there's some really good advice offered in this thread.
Hopefully what I'm about to post will add to that, but from a completely different perspective.
No two players are alike. None of us handicap and arrive at opinions/wagering decisions in exactly the same way.
Every single one of us has different reasons for making bets and adding horses to tickets.
I would suggest keeping records of your wagering activity.
Imo, your records should include your reason for making each bet in the first place.
Develop a set of codes for each of your reasons.
Each code has two parts:
A Short Description. This can be alpha-numeric:
A Long Description. A simple phrase describing the reason itself:
Quote:
|
Valid Excuse in Last/Worked Well Since
|
You could keep paper records in a notebook.
Better yet, create a spreadsheet.
The columns might look something like this:
Code:
Date Track Race Surf Dist FSz Num Horse Odds Bet Coll Wager Short Long
---------- ----- ---- ---- ----- --- --- ---------------- ------ ----- ------ ------------- ----- ---------------------------
12-13-2023 MVD 1 D 6.0F 6 5 R CLIFFHANGER 15.00 18.00 41.25 Tri-PtWheel A004 ClassDrop SPLWT to MClm
Imo, a spreadsheet is better for reviewing records and retooling your game.
Especially if you can write VBA code and create your own metrics.
If you're diligent about this and willing to do the work:
Eventually you'll have recorded a few hundred tickets along with the primary reason for making each bet in the first place.
At which point you'll have the ability to analyze the data and make some relevant observations about your strengths and weaknesses as a player.
Chances are you'll realize many of your reasons for betting aren't nearly as strong as you thought they were. Or not nearly as strong as they used to be.
Maybe some of your reasons do well in turf routes, but are weak in dirt sprints, etc.
It's possible one or two of the 10-15 reasons you have don't generate a lot of plays, but the ones that do come up are strong pretty much everywhere.
From there you could start dialing back play or even stopping play altogether for some of your weaker reasons.
Or scaling up play for some of your better reasons.
Keeping records can be an effective way to improve as a player.
But it's also work.
Work that very few players are willing to do.
-jp
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