Quote:
Originally Posted by FocusWiz
I have been on the other side of this where my horse's odds jumped way up (to where I would have played it) because of someone placing a huge sum on some sure shot.
I am no longer clear on what my strategy should be when I like a horse and the odds seem already too low.
I do watch the odds like a hawk looking for signs of some money coming in. I saw a small dip around 12 mtp (around when the first money starts to arrive) but nothing that indicated there was any huge money coming.
I did not save it, but I think the exactas were already reflecting some big money was involved.  with   and  were paying a lot less than and with . |
That's the point of pulling down the final DD probables matrix putting it into excel and finding out what the odds are very likely to be, you don't need to look at the board anymore. 20 minutes to post you jot down the odds which are known to you and treat them as fixed odds. Now for me if I liked the 4 and made him 4-5 on paper, that's a prime bet for me at 3-2. I would bet 2% to win and that's that. Whatever it pays it pays but you definitely know it won't be 4-1. After 1000 bets you can bet your life it'll be in lockstep with the probables over a large sample size.
If he were 6-5 on probables instead of 3-2, that's below my 3-2 min prime bet cutoff so it's an automatic action bet race. I'd either sit on my hands, make an action bet of some sort on the horse (exactas whatever) or take a stab on another horse at overlay odds if one exists. No more than two prime bets per day. Action bets can TOTAL for the day no more than 2/3rds the size of one prime bet with no action bet on the card exceeding 1/3rd of a prime bet. So you make the horse even money, he's going off at even money, you can still bet a third of a prime bet if you want to maybe on exactas or a trifecta key or even a win bet, it's action, it's not critical. The prime bets are critical.
That's old school Beyer and Davidowitz on money management. Made me a consistent winner. It's once again do-able if the track has rolling doubles and decent sized pools. Unfortunately I don't have time to live-and-breathe the game anymore like a lot of people do. Maybe someday but it's a ton of work, you need to be on top of it like Serling is. Day to day that's what you do and not much else.
