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Originally Posted by Augenj
Could it be that the #1 hole has a higher win per cent because it usually has fewer horses to race? For example, a horse from the 12 post is always racing against 11 other horses. A horse from the 1 post is racing against anywhere from 2 to 11 other horses. Therefore, it might be reasonable to expect the 12 post to have a lower win per cent than the 1 post. That's why I "normalize" post stats to a 10 horse field.
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Close, just use some sort of actual vs expected Win % because what if that 1 hole is always a 99-1 shot.
