Quote:
TRACK PHANTOM WROTE:
I do think there are players that have a major edge over others but do not believe there is an algorithm that does the work for you. That is something, after spending 32 years reading and studying this game like a crazy man, that I find improbable. However, I'm all ears and eyes to some proof to back up the "don't ya think" or "how hard is it to believe" arguments being pushed forward.
|
There isn's AN ALGORITHM that "does the work." There are multiple ones that do, and "the work" is data processing. Algorithms are better at it than you or I are. As much as it pains me to agree with PA, he's right about what's happening here. I'm surprised that some are still underestimating the impact of automation going on in all sectors of society, and in the financial sectors (including horse racing) most obviously. Automation is set to replace nearly half of all current jobs in the next couple of decades - its remaking whole areas of social life, not just pari-mutuel wagering.
I could point to a million example of how algorithms are being deployed, but the main point is that so long as there is an asymmetry of resources related to their use, there will be asymmetrical outcomes. Automatic decision-making structures REINFORCE INEQUALITY, and in horse racing, where there are whales and the rest of us, it is only more obviously the case. I cannot get ADWs to bend to my wishes; whales can. I cannot get the rebates they can. And I cannot invest in the proprietary, extremely fine-grained decisional softwares, and neither can most of you, but they can and do.
"Big data" surveillance of the kind whales can perform on horses across multiple tracks in real time gives an advantage that can never be matched without similar resources. It is all about processing power, the isolation of meaningful variables and the modeling that can be built from it. The bigger the data sets and the processing power, the more likely one is to find and be able to exploit a hidden pattern.
What PA doesn't realize is that he will never beat them by himself over time - in the short run, yes, anyone fortified with their individual AI software can win. In the long run, as with this poker AI, it's virtually impossible without the advantage that unlimited resources give you.
https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/arc...oker-pros.html
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...h-destruction/
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Pass...ithms-and-bots
