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Originally Posted by mountainman
While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.
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Mark:
There are ways to do it and I actually have all the data needed though its not something PTC does.
Computer teams do it, they construct their wagers off of a predicted dividend not the actually tote price at the time they send in their bets. That's why its a fallacy that they all bet at 0MTP. They don't because they are wagering off of predicted payoffs. Now of course some teams are better at dividend projection than others...
It's also how they size their bets for tris and supers in case anyone was interested. There is no
"secret" tote feed that shows those matricies. It's all based upon their dividend forecast models. One of the biggest mistakes I made when I played CRW a few years back is that I didn't use projected dividends and ended up betting too many underlays. I know better now should I ever get the inclination to take another crack at it...
Happy holidays to all.
Ian
