Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
Recessions happen. If there is one on the horizon a year or so out, to me, that's the normal course of events. Will it happen? I have no idea. I find these inverted curves interesting facts. Are they predictive? Have been in the past, but who knows going forward. Two things are a given: 1. Markets overreact. 2. Short-term rates higher than long term rates is abnormal. It just doesn't make sense, at least to me.
That being said, I'm a day trader. I no longer try and predict what the markets are going to do. Been proven wrong too many times. (Been right many times, but bad timing.) Instead, I try (as best I can) to react appropriately to what the markets are already doing.
That approach has helped a lot. Quite a lot.
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Recessions are almost always preceeded by an inverted yield curve. But an inverted yield curve, in and of itself, does not mean mean a recession is imminent. Correlation but not causation.
