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After rating the horses with the normal factors, speed, class, driver, trainer, 4thQ effort, and post bias . .
I then use the Leaver/Stalker/Closer classification to predict pace. (driver aggression enters in here also). A race with 1 or 2 leavers is considered slow and a bonus is applied to the best rated leaver. A race with 3 or more probable leavers gives the bonus to the highest rated inside closer. I've never tested using the 1/2 pole speed ratings to predict pace. Something on my To-Do list.
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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