Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael
Hey CJ,
Just finished my personal post-mortem review of the derby. Kind of wondering as a figure maker... what your thoughts are in regards to any of the preps and the figures that you gave them. Are you happy with all of the figs? did you over / under estimate any track variants? I ask mainly bc I used 3 different figs for this derby and certain horses came up when I used time form and beyers that I didn't land on when I used brisnet.
Specifically I had White Abbario as a contender for both timeform and DRF. Then, I eliminated mo-donegal when I used beyers, but really liked mo-donegal with timeform and brisnet. Just found it strange that Zandon had a 103 bris and a 111 bris for Mo Donegal. Obviously I'm asking out of respect for your hard work and not questioning your talent. (atm I think timeform is the best figs on the market)
What planted the seed in my mind to ask you... was Andy Beyer picked White Abarrio. (If I just used Beyers & timeform I had him as an overlay.)
i think the races or figs in question would be for the wood, any of the gulf stream park figs and I guess the bluegrass.
Ultimately I ended up keying off of Mo Donegal and I think I'm happy with my pick and my play.
You don't have to answer here.. but, thought it's a good topic for the podcast with David. I found the figs interesting for these preps.
Edit: and thank you btw for posting these derby updates in this thread every year.. Makes it fun to follow along.
|
First, I'm a little annoyed I didn't update the spreadsheet with Rich Strike. He was ranked 17th on Speed Figure, 4th on Last Fraction, and 8th overall. I'm traveling this week (in Philly for two NBA playoff games) and just didn't have the time.
As for the preps, nothing stuck out to me too much. Maybe the SoCal preps are a little high, but otherwise everything else fell in line. I hated the Florida preps and the Arkansas route, have been clear about that for a while. Not sure why you'd have White Abarrio as an overlay on TFUS, I didn't like him at all. I said on the podcast if I had to take one horse from that group it was Simplification.
I may have underrated Epicenter a little, but he fit, just thought he'd be overbet. I was pretty sure they winner was coming from SoCal, Kentucky, Louisiana or New York, but I never saw the actual winner at all. I admittedly was probably a little lazy since I ignored him as an AE all week, but I'm not going to be that guy to say I'd have liked him more than possible tri and super filler.
