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One of my favorite go against plays is a runner dropping in class off of a good race. Even better if it has a bad workout pattern. For example, in its last race it finished 3rd beaten 1 length for a claiming price of 25k. The last race was 35 days ago. It either shows no published works, or at most, one short slow breeze since that race. It is entered today for 20 or even 16k. A horse like this will go off a very short price, often odds on, and I will attempt to beat it every time. Do these types win? Sure they do, but the roi on this kind must be horrible. They dont give race horses away, and it is as if the barn is hanging a sign on the animal stating that it is walking on eggs, and they hope that it holds together enough to get at least a piece of the purse, and they very much want it to be claimed. This type of suspicious drop only applies to claiming races. A horse that has been getting pieces of stake races that shows up in an allowance race for which it still is eligible for can be a very good wager, although at a likely short price. A good example of the shaky dropper type is the example given above by Andy.
Last edited by BlueShoe; 01-15-2010 at 11:24 AM.
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