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I bet 1st time starters when the field they are facing is full of proven losers, good or unusual work patterns but never chalky ones. Sometimes it's just a process of elimenation.
Donald Warren had a 1st'er in a turf route about a week ago that had a very unusual pattern: working every 3 days, long work - blowout - long work. He won and I didn't have a penny on him even though I looked at that pattern for a good 10 minutes.
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