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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
You don't skip the Derby with a contender because you think it's a tough spot. This is once in a lifetime kind of stuff. No chance they were lying. It has to be close to 0%
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Fair enough, but that doesn't mean it was a major issue. In fact, the trainer repeatedly told the media it was "minor", "insignificant", and just "ill-timed".
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He didn't lose a lot of time, but he lost some time and I heard he was working in a special shoe. So there was an issue they were training him through.
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The report was that it was a simple grabbed quarter, which is essentially a small wound. They stated that they put iodine on it for a couple of days and that was that. This wasn't something he was having to nurse through to get to the race like Touch Gold or A.P. Indy (both of whom won the Belmont despite their respective problems).
Art Collector was already back to the track within 4 days of his injury and actually galloped the morning of the Kentucky Derby.
Drury was quoted as saying his workouts for the Preakness were the best works he'd ever seen from the horse.
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He did have a really nice work and they must have thought he was past it or they wouldn't have run in the Preakness. But he ran worse than he had been. That's already telling you he wasn't the same horse. Something was amiss.
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Yeah, he was stepping up from prep races to a classic. Maybe he wasn't the horse we thought he might be based on his lower level wins heading into the Triple Crown races.
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IMO, going into the Classic off that Preakness performance would have been NUTS. I don't even think it's a serious conversation. You either run in the Mile or not at all, but not the Classic. He would have been one of the longest shots on the board in the Classic.
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I gave you a litany of horses that ran poorly heading into the Classic yet ran huge. Their odds are irrelevant.
One of those was the aforementioned A.P. Indy, who was felled by a quarter crack before the Kentucky Derby yet won the Peter Pan and Belmont. Then in his final start before the Classic, he went down to his knees at the start and...grabbed a quarter. Came back and ran through the Classic field like they were standing still (with Eddie D. ahead of his time observing the new California whip rules, tapping him once on the shoulder underhanded at the 1/8th pole).
