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[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Just a personal observation about odds lines, and this dovetails with Thas' posts, but one thing making at least a rough odds line does for me is keep me away from the worst bets, which are horses with fairly good chances to win at fairly low odds.

In other words, you think a horse has the best chance to win the race, and he's 2 to 1. Without an odds line, I would have tended to just bet that horse to win. But the odds line keeps me honest-- if I assign probabilities to the rest of the horses in the race, do I really give that horse a 34 percent or greater chance of winning the race (really a 40 percent or greater, because I need a cushion)? Oftentimes if I do the line and realistically estimate the chances of the other contenders, I will find I only give that horse a 25 percent chance, or a 20 percent chance. I still think he's got the best shot, but the betting value isn't there. So I pass the race (unless I can figure out a likely overlay in the exotics).

I think LOTS of players make exactly these sorts of negative value bets, because they don't have an odds line (or a strong enough notion in their head of what the odds should be) to stop them.

I agree. Somebody else's oddsline is meaningless unless they are god like. Any version of an oddsline of your own as you said keeps you out of non winning situations. That in itself is a win.