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[classhandicapper]

I mostly look at running styles.

IMO, horses only run as fast as they have to in order to secure the desired running position (horses and riders). So you can't necessarily tell how fast a "need the lead", "front runner", "near front runner" etc.. is capable of running based on how fast it ran early in recent races. Their prior fractions would depend on the kind of fields they drew into.

Once I know how the horse typically likes to run (including being versatile) it's only then that I try to determine if one of them can dominate some of the others on the lead or a couple are clearly inferior to a couple of others.

I will look at pace figures, but I tend to look at the quality and consistency of the horses each has been battling with or outrunning in other races. If one is clearly superior in quality, I'd expect it to either outrun or put away the cheaper ones and continue on (assuming form is constant). I'd expect the cheaper ones to fold (often badly) and finish worse than they would in a more neutrally run race.

When they are of similar quality, they tend to all run up close and it's kind of random as to which gets the lead (post position, start, rider aggressiveness etc..). In those races they will all mostly continue on unless the riders get overly aggressive.

There are also examples of horses that do their best running up close, but they draw into a race with so many front running and close up types that some of them wind up mid pack or worse (in slower fractions than they normally run). Those horses typically do not fire their best race. The exceptions are lightly raced horses that haven't really established what they are capable of doing.

We've all seen the speed horse that gets left to last and rallies to win, but we've also all seen the speed horse that gets left, is rushed up or outrun, and drops dead more often.