Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 05-23-2022, 02:03 PM   #15
Track Collector
Grinding at a Poker Table
 
Track Collector's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,902
Played again on Sunday at CT.

Three particular hands:
--- I have 9s10s and the flop comes 7s8sKs and I am in position. Villain has 78o and bets $35 and I go all-in for my remaining $100. Turn is a blank and river is of course a 7. If I jam after the flop, maybe he folds, but in general we should make more money betting for value when we believe we are ahead.
--- An older gentleman who seems a bit on the weak side limps in for $2 UTG, I think there is another limper or two, and I happily check my BB option with 2d4d. The flop is 2h4h7h. UTG bets $5 and I am the only caller. The river is another 4. UTG bets $35 and I call, as I have a strong feeling he has the nut flush. River is an A and he bets out $50. I re-raise all-in for about $125 more and he calls. He does indeed have the Ah, but also another A. In hindsight I believe that with almost 100% certainty that he still calls my all-in if I jam on the turner. The hits seem to get better, so after being rivered with the previously 4-outer, I now get rivered with a 2-outer. (Yes, we also benefit from hitting 4 and 2-outers, but that seems like it has not happened in my favor for a long time.)
--- A player who has only been at the table for about 30 minutes and currently on the CO raises to $7 pre-flop. I call with Ah7h as well as another 2 players. The flop comes 2h8h10h. The CO bets $35 and I call. The turn is an action killing Qh, or so I think. CO leads out $50 and I jam for the rest of rest of my chips. He thinks for about 2 minutes and says I think you have the Ah, but you could be bluffing. He calls with QhJh and an open-ended straight flush draw. Also under consideration is that there is a $300 High Hand promotion where the current hour was ticking down and which he would be virtually 100% to win if he hits. My current bad variance run is about to bite me again with another 2-outer. The river is a blank and I win! Yay!!!

Along the session I was down two $200 buy-ins and stayed with one more $100 bullet. This last hand rallied me to about -$100 for the day. Like most people I was temped to play on, trying to get back to even. I lost about $30 more with AKo on the button, when I folded to a new player's lead out bet of $35 again a flop of A34 rainbow, turn of a 7, and a river of a 5. With her calling my $10 pre-flop raise, so many BB hands can beat me. I played about another 15 minutes, and after getting back to -$100 for the day, I happily decided the rally was more like a winning session so home I went.

This bad variance run of the past 4-6 weeks will certainly turn the other way, but it is more likely to ebb back my way rather than getting hot the next few weeks. Even the players who are superior to me in talent have to experience these longer streaks of play where the deck seems to constantly be hitting one over the head. There are no guarantees so future bad variance could continue or get EVEN WORSE over the next few weeks and months. Bad variance is often accompanied by impatience and increased bad play, so special efforts need to taken to guard against these which cause bankrolls to shrink even more than they would with better play during bad variance.

As indicated in previous posts, winning High Hands continue to be my friend and keep my YTD efforts in the black, albeit barely now.
Track Collector is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:45 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.