Overall, I'm pretty happy with the Daily Variants I made at Saratoga today -- July 30.
For the Off The Turf claiming races I used par times that were two classes lower because I've always felt the claiming prices on the turf are more generous than on the dirt. It didn't make much of a difference. The running times were still much slower than par.
It looks like the first two furlongs were run about a fifth of a second faster than par, but as the horses ran farther into the race the muddy track produced an exaggerated telescoping effect. They ran about 2/5 slow at the half and by 3/4 they were running about a second behind par in routes and a 2 seconds behind in sprints. At the finish of the routes they were running a full 3 seconds slow.
The most impressive race of the day was the 3rd race -- The MSW race for 2 year old state breds. The winner almost ran to par over a presumably slow track. Definitely worth watching next time out. The second place finisher lost by a few lengths, but beat the third place finisher by 10. So the second place horse could be a good bet in the MSW next time.
Code:
7/30/2015 ACTUAL PARS DIFFERENCES
race# 2f 4f 6f ff | 2f 4f 6f ff | 2f 4f 6f ff class
2 49.35 75.05 115.7 | 48.21 73.37 111.39 | -1.14 -1.68 -4.31 9f c16 NW2L F 3+ sloppy sealed
3 22.67 46.06 65.14 | 22.44 46 65 | -0.23 -0.06 -0.14 5.5f MSW 2yo SB
4 22.03 45.2 77.69 | 22.19 45.27 75.9 | 0.16 0.07 -1.79 6.5f STK 3+SB
5 22.04 45.85 65.87 | 22.13 45.55 64.63 | 0.09 -0.3 -1.24 5.5 MSW F 2yo off turf
6 49.15 74 113.91 | 48.06 73.07 110.78 | -1.09 -0.93 -3.13 9f c50 F 3yo off turf use c30
7 21.87 46.03 65.82 | 22.54 45.9 63.54 | 0.67 -0.13 -2.28 5.5f c40 NW2L F 3+ off turf use c25
8 47.97 73.08 112.91 | 48.31 72.93 111.14 | 0.34 -0.15 -1.77 9f MSW F 3+
9 49.11 73.97 112.85 | 47.76 72.47 109.59 | -1.35 -1.5 -3.26 9f AOC62.5 F 3+ off turf use c40 muddy sealed
10 22.29 45.72 71.64 | 22.55 45.97 69.88 | 0.26 0.25 -1.76 6f MCL25 F 3+ SB
RTE DV -0.81 -1.07 -3.12
AVG DV 0.19 -0.38 -1.07 -2.19
MED DV 0.16 -0.13 -1.22 -1.79
