Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If class is speed, and speed is class...why do the horses run improving speed figures when dropping in class, and declining speed figures when rising in class?
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Speed figures measure how fast a horse ran given a specific set of conditions (pace, competitive nature of the race, quality of the other horses, how the track surface was playing, trip etc..)
Class is all of a horse's underlying tangible and less tangible abilities expressed as one
1. How fast he can run at top speed
2. How quickly he can accelerate
3. How much stamina he has
4. How long he can sustain at or close to top speed before cracking
5. How well he handles the pressure of other horses battling with him
6. How adaptive he is to various pace scenarios
7. How well he handles deep or hard surfaces
8. How willing he is to fight for the lead when tired
9. How fast he is out of the gate
10. etc
As you move up and down in class, you face progressively weaker or stronger opposition. So the demands of the race "tend" (not always) to get correspondingly weaker or stronger. Those conditions are part of what impacts the times.
What the class handicapper is trying to do is get past just the final times to the underlying ability of the horses. They will be closely correlated, which is why speed figures work so well. But class is more comprehensive, albeit more difficult to measure, especially when it comes to lightly raced horses that have not been tested yet. You don't know what a horse has in reserve until it's required. Some will wilt chasing horses quicker out of the gate and equally fast or faster and some will reveal they had more pure speed and ability to carry the battle further than they showed to that point.
(and of course, class/ability is not static. it changes)
IMO there are NO really good books on class. There are chapters in books that are nonsensical, chapters that highlight techniques for measuring it that are not good, and occasional solid insights, but no one has put it all together like Andy Beyer and others did for measuring final time.
