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Originally Posted by Charli125
I disagree. The books, even the ones in vegas, all move their lines pretty much together. In the perfect world, the books have even money on each side, and take the vig, that's why the lines change. In the rare case that they do take a stand, they're right much more often than they're wrong(yes, the 2008 SB was a bad one, but just think how much they make during College FB season). Sure, they could have some short-term losses, but it's going to make money overall.
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That's a myth. Very few books try to balance money in each side. Books bet on teams just like bettors do, because bettors are (over time) wrong in very predictable ways. I go back to the 2008 super bowl because it's a clear example, but there are a handful of glaring ones each week- the books were actively avoiding balancing the action. They wanted money to roll in on New York, and encouraged betting on New York throughout the week... then got reamed (something like 95% of the money bet on the moneyline was bet on New York, and they had to pay it out at 4 to 1. Ouch.) This happens every week, and Vegas wins some and loses some.
The lines move together because most lines come from a single consortium. Books don't want to be the part of a middling game played by bettors.
