Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I posted 500+ real-time plays on here not so long ago and showed a profit (yeah, it was a small one...4-5% I think...)...while these teams are active...this shows me a small player can still make a profit in this game WITHOUT rebates...
AND MY METHOD OF PLAY WAS TO BET OVERLAYS on my line...something people are saying is IMPOSSIBLE TO DO NOW WITH CRWs KILLING ODDS AFTER THE GATE OPENS.
It was NEVER EASY to win at this game....NEVER
It's not easy now...but it certainly isn't impossible.
I think the majority of folks railing against these CRWs are WAY overstating their impact on the small player to make a profit.
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Either you are very good or you had a very good run. If you post another 500 plays starting today and have similar results you are likely very good at this game. On the other hand, maybe on your next sample of 500 horse you will regress to your mean(whatever that may be or worse yet have a sample as bad as the first sample was good, maybe losing 50% on the dollar).
That doesn't change the fact that the numbers make it clear that the majority of horseplayers are going to lose 20-30% on the dollar. Perhaps you also missed this post by Ian.
Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.
That is just further confirmation that I am fairly accurate in my assessment.
So the only question that matters is whether that business model(your average patron losing 25% + breakage) is conducive to the long term growth and success of racing. IMO, the answer is absolutely not, when they can lose less than 5% on table games and 8% on slots and 4.5% on sports betting and 10-12% on dfs.
By the way, I agree this game has never been easy and it will not become easy even if rebates were eliminated this week. It would just be a better game and a lot more enjoyable for everyone.
