Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
 Jovia, 30-1
Here we have the longest shot on the board. Double next best Tax at 15-1.
How about those blistering fractions in the Wood Memorial? Are they not the fastest early pace figs in the field? Swung in from the 11th post and took the lead. Caused some consternation doing so. Beat by two of the classy contenders here (among others). Probably no surprise.
Don't want to make too much of the last win in the Long Branch, vs. three in the slop with hottest contender breaking down and the track favoring speed.
Alwaysmining put him away easily in the Private Terms at Laurel. But he got place, in his second race, first of the three-year-old campaign.
Lightly raced. Looks to get the lead, saving ground on the inside. No early threat to its outside. Did I mention 30-1 on the morning line?
No class to speak of other than the burnout in the Wood. No obvious distance pedigree, but that's not my thing.
Any inkling he can stay the distance, and I'm very interested. |
"Hoping that the race flow is too forward-favoring and that Tacitus is too sluggish", is about the only value-oriented angle that I can even imagine.
Such a tough race, in terms of value. Tacitus is a legit favorite. War of Will is a legit co-favorite. Several speeds, and several closers, none of which stand out within their respective style groupings.
I don't love Joevia. And, there are 3 or 4 priced speeds that I would have to use, in order to divide up a bet like that for me, so it will not be my angle.
My only semi-opinion of the speeds; War of Will can inherit a contending trip if he is the same horse as he was in the Preakness, and that Tax belonged in the Derby and gets a better trip and a class-drop here in the Belmont. I think Tax is about a coin-flip to run a contending trip, but I also think there are lot's of ways that Tax can get beat, even if he runs 3rd at 10-1, or whatever.
Looks like a pass for me on the race.
McKinzie was a horse I leaned against in the Classic last year, while keying Thunder Snow across the board, but McKinzie jumped off the screen in his recent work, and looks like he may be a single for me in spite of a race full of nice horses /Met Mile. Just not sure that opinion will really be that unique. If he's not singled, he'll be on everyone's A-list. I'll look to the Turf (Manhattan) but it looks like one of the trainers has four entrants in the Manhattan.
Have to re-look at the card under a more optimistic state of mind.
