Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I believe I read some place that BRIS never changes a running style after they assign one. They assign the rating after the first race in the horse shows something. A horse that runs dead last all the way around the track in its first start does not get one. A horse in its first start that pops out on top will get an "E" even if it fades to last. The "E/P" looks like it goes to horses that are 2nd or 3rd in the that early race and fade. The "P" goes to a horse who runs like an "E/P" early but closes. The "S" goes to a horse that close in that rated race. Like I said before, I don't think BRIS changes the rating ever(at least I have seen it if they do), the horse do and sometimes BRIS is wrong, but they are right a surprising amount of the time.
Giles's method is by far the best method I have seen for determining the way the horse wants to run. The problem is that a horse is not always fast enough to run the way it wants to. Most of the time jockey has no say in what way the horse will run and most horses want the lead, but some will settle for second or third if they have to, but only if they have to. Some won't and will battle tooth and nail for the lead if they are not quite a bit slower than the other horse. That something most handicappers have trouble figuring out.
|
So, are you saying that, without having a database of every horse's races, one will never duplicate their Brisnet running style assignments? That would severely hamper my efforts, to say the least.
Maybe if I started with it's most distant race in the last 10, and worked forward. I have been doing it the opposite way, for obvious reasons. Many horses' styles DO change over time.
By the way, if every horse wants the lead, then you'd have a heck of a scramble for it in every race, which is not the case. Almost any horse alive can run 22 or less for a quarter mile. The jockey does have some say in how they run, he does have hands and feet after all. That being said, some horses want to lead, others want to run with the leader, others want to be buried nice and safe in the middle of the pack, and some just don't care for the pack at all.
