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Originally Posted by raybo
Yes, that was a real example. According to Brisnet, they don't consider finish positions or finish B/Ls, only 1st and 2nd call positions and B/Ls.
The method I use needs to know how a horse "normally" runs, not only how it runs when it has a "good" race ("good" normally means 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and B/Ls of 2 or less, and I never assume any horse is going to run his "good" race). When horses have only 1 or 2 of those races (or none), and they were in the distant past, they do me no good.
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If they really don't consider the finish (or filter by it in any way), then I would say the logic of making that an "E" would be something like, "When it DID contend for the lead (bl <= 1.0), it did it at the first call, therefore E. It did not contend for the lead in any other race and those races were not considered." If it had not had that most recent race, probably would have gotten an NA (unknown). It is very likely the rules are different for horses with only a few races (and/or possibly maidens generally) and so you'll see apparent inconsistencies or what seems like guessing (because it is) compared to those horses with more of a record.
Still, I don't see how they can discount the finish totally, or at least use it as a filter. It would be possible to reverse engineer if you had enough data examples...
